ABSTRACT
Objective:To forecast Urban Employees' Basic Medical Insurance ( UEBMI) in the next 85 years based on population size, age and gender distribution, and to calculate its sustainability gap. Methods:According to the population policy of Beijing and economic development of the region;based on the data of the sixth census in Bei-jing, the estimation model was constructed, and its parameters were defined and selected. Based on the period of 2010, the future of UEBMI in the next 85 year was predicted based on the population size, age and gender distribu-tion. Results:The population of UEBMI in Beijing will reach the maximum value in 2020, and then the downward trend will increase. The aging rate of the insured population will accelerate year after year and will reach the peak in the middle of this 21st century. The sustainability gap is predicted to reach at least 9541. 35 Billion dollars, and the Beijing municipal government is expected to level an average of at least 44 . 693 billion yuan per year to set aside the financial funds in order to fill the gap, so sustainable development of the fund is ensured. Conclusion:From the point of view of the insured population, there is a huge financial sustainability risk in the future of UEBMI in Beijing.
ABSTRACT
There is a unification of the social pooling accounts and personal saving accounts of Urban Employees' Basic Medical Insurance ( UEBMI) in Shanghai. In recent years, the revenue and expenditure of UEBMI funds increased, and the fund balance sprouted year by year, and mostly concentrated in personal health insurance saving accounts. On the whole, the vast majority of insured personal saving accounts have balances, but the balance is not high, i. e. less than 1000 yuan accounted for 52. 3%. Judging from the age group, the personal health insur-ance saving account funds is mainly concentrated in the 30-year-old and over working population. Because of its par-ticularity, the personal health insurance saving accounts can only be invested in current deposit (bank live), time deposit and national debt, bonds and other hedge. Compared with the price index devaluation, the personal health insurance saving accounts somehow failed to give full play to the personal attributes. It is suggested to explore the use function of personal health insurance saving accounts by establishing family saving accounts-family coexistence, pur-chasing of supplementary medical insurance and so on. Simultaneously, the channels of maintaining and increasing the value of personal health insurance saving accounts could be broadened.